Fertility And Money
A 2025 analysis by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute shows that Utah’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) fell in 2023 to 1.801, and the state dropped from the 4th‑highest fertility rate in the nation to 10th place (Gardner Institute, 2025). Meanwhile, the national U.S. TFR fell to approximately 1.621 births per woman, a 2.1% year‑over‑year decline.
Then my son, who lives in a condo with his wife and their newborn in Utah, told me:
“We can’t afford a house, so we had to get a condo … and we won’t be able to have any more children in this condo. We need space and a yard. And we don’t know when that could happen with the economy and housing the way it is.”
At first glance, his words speak to financial hardship—yet it hints at a deeper, complex phenomenon shaping young adults’ decisions about marriage and childbearing. Is the high cost of living controlling how many children couples can—or will—have? Or is America’s declining TFR symptomatic of broader cultural, social, and spiritual transformations? Or, could it be a combination of many factors; a perfect storm of sorts?
Robert Henderson, journalist for City Journal, expressed the demographic situation like this, “Despite family-friendly social and economic policies, birthrates are falling in many rich countries. A recent article in the Financial Times notes that past declines were driven by families having fewer children, but now people are skipping having children altogether. ‘Nobody really knows what’s going on,” writes FT. “It’s not primarily driven by economics or family policies. It’s something cultural, psychological.” Are Henderson and the Financial Times correct?
Bloated narratives around fertility often focus on money and housing—but what about belief and religion, mental health and media, self-focused culture, changing norms, and environmental shifts? Might we be approaching a demographic crisis with economic, social and moral ramifications? And most importantly, what might be the antidote: restoring faith, culture, and confidence in marriage and children, or tax reform and lowering the entry point for homeownership?
Basic Demographic Landscape
- A society needs a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of approximately 2.1 children per woman/couple to maintain population replacement.
- In 2000, the crude marriage rate in the U.S. was 8.2 marriages per 1,000 total population; by 2023 it had dropped to 6.1 per 1,000 (CDC table, National Center for Health Statistics, 2024)
- Over the same period, the crude birth rate declined from about 14.4 births per 1,000 total population in 2000 to about 10.7 per 1,000 in 2023 (USAFacts, CDC data, Alfred Data)
- That is a roughly 25% decline in both marriage and birth rates, translating to an estimated 1.4 million fewer babies per year than if marriage patterns had remained intact.
These national shifts underscore a central point: marriage decline is a major driver of fertility decline, not simply changing population structure.
Marriage & Fertility Link: Melissa Kearney & Economic Context
Melissa Kearney’s Research
Economist Melissa Kearney (University of Maryland, formerly Brookings) has become a leading voice in examining how economic inequity and family structure influence fertility. Her collaborative decompositions (Kearney, Levine & Pardue, 2022) show that declines in fertility are largely within demographic groups, not solely driven by population makeup changes. Even accounting for educational attainment, race, age, or region, birthrates within those groups fell significantly.
What Does “Low‑SES” Have To Do With TFR Declines?
The term “low-SES” refers to individuals or communities with low socioeconomic status—typically characterized by lower income, education levels, and employment opportunities.
Another pivotal study by Kearney & Riley Wilson (2017) examined “Marriageable Men”—areas with booming male earnings tied to energy sector growth saw increases in both marital and non-marital births. However, marriage rates rose only modestly; fertility increased mainly through married births—demonstrating how male economic viability affects marriage formation and thereby fertility.
As Kearney notes, fertility per married couple hasn’t dropped much. But overall births fell mainly because fewer people are marrying, and more are delaying or forgoing marriage entirely (City Journal interview).
Additional Fertility‑Influencing Factors
Health & Biological Factors
1. Cesarean Section (C-Section) Rates
- In 2023, about 32.3% of U.S. births were by cesarean (CDC) .
- Although C-section births themselves generally allow future childbearing, increasing rates—especially medically unnecessary deliveries—may correlate with increased medical caution and fewer subsequent pregnancies. Patterns during the COVID era suggest delivery trends shifted simultaneously with declining fertility.
2. Mental Health & Psychological Influences
The modern era places heavy emphasis on diagnosing and treating mental health conditions. However, unintended pregnancies, abortions and complicated fertility experiences have been linked to significant mental health risks—including anxiety, depression, and even suicidal ideation.
This increased scrutiny and prioritization of mental wellness can inadvertently communicate to young adults that they are “fragile” or “not ready,” potentially delaying or discouraging parenting and partnership—even among otherwise healthy individuals.
3. Eating Disorders, COVID Effects, Cancer & Fertility
- Eating disorders are known to impair reproductive hormones and fertility; prevalence among young women has increased but hard national data is limited.
- Post‑COVID menstrual irregularities and emerging concerns about male infertility following infection or cancer raise legitimate reproductive questions—but robust large-cohort studies are still pending.
Reproductive Control & Sterilization
1. Vasectomy Trends
- Although vasectomy is less common in the U.S. than peer nations, there is evidence of a ~59% increase in vasectomy use among younger men after the 2022 Dobbs decision, suggesting more permanent family planning choices which reduce future fertility potential.
2. Abortion Trends
- Although abortion has historically contributed to fertility decline, evidence post‑Dobbs shows that abortion restrictions are linked to increased fertility rates, meaning that abortion availability played a suppressive role before being restricted. Johns Hopkins reported, “The fertility rate in states with abortion bans was 1.7 % higher than expected, with 60.55 live births per 1,000 reproductive‑aged females versus the 59.54 expected.
- “States legalizing abortion experienced a 4 % decline in fertility relative to states where the legal status of abortion was unchanged. … If women did not travel between states to obtain an abortion, the estimated impact of abortion legalization on birth rates would be about 11 %.” (National Library of Medicine 1999)
3. Birth Control Activism
- Expanding access to contraception—including through activism and family planning programs—has demonstrably lowered fertility rates, both internationally and historically in the U.S. “Exposure to a birth control clinic throughout the entire fertile period from age 15 to 39 reduced fertility by 12–15 %.” (IZA, 2023)
4. Tobacco, Marijuana, CBD/THC, and Fertility
- More youth and young adults are using marijuana and tobacco products than ever before due to the prevalence of the vape-culture. Youth and young adults likely don’t recognize the potential fertility risks of substance use.
- “Recent widespread legalization changes have promoted the availability of marijuana and its increased potency and perceived safety. The limited evidence on reproductive and perinatal outcomes from marijuana exposure is enough to warrant concern and action.” (National Library of Medicine 2021)
- Men’s fertility: “Tobacco and cannabis smoking altered sperm morphology and motility, and damaged sperm DNA integrity.”
- Women’s fertility: “Women who had smoked marijuana within one year of trying to conceive were twice as likely to have infertility because of ovulatory dysfunction.”
- “Cannabis users were 40% less likely to conceive compared to non-users due to its effects on reproductive hormones and uterine lining.”
5. Impact of Gender-Affirming Identity and Hormone Therapy on Fertility
- “Gender-affirming hormone therapy often suppresses biological fertility—ovulation in transgender men or spermatogenesis in transgender women—resulting in long-term impacts for many young adults who adopt these identities or medical transitions.”
- Gender-affirming surgeries can eliminate any chance for fertility for many people.
Cultural & Social Influences
In the case of Utah, recent U.S. migration trends have transplanted many new people to Utah since COVID. While this could be a factor for Utah’s fertility decline, there are likely many other social and cultural influences that are changing demographics in Utah and around the globe.
1. Pornography & Sexual Norms
While direct statistical links are limited, cultural analysts argue that hyper‑sexualized pornography can substitute for relational intimacy. Men may derive sexual satisfaction without partnering, and women may resist roles objectified in porn narratives. The result: delayed or forgone marriage and intimacy.
2. Self‑Culture & Body‑Image Focus
Feedback from a 22-year-old student, Madi of BYU, illustrates a growing sentiment:
“My classmates say they’ve worked so hard to make their bodies beautiful, and they don’t want to ruin all that work by having a baby.”
While anecdotal, this reflects a broad cultural messaging: fertility and motherhood may disrupt personal identity and physical idealism.
3. Delay & Career‑First Socialization
Marriage and childbearing among young adults have dropped steeply. For example, married couples aged 18–34 with children declined at least 12 percentage points between 1990 and 2015. Increasingly, young people are socialized—often by parents and institutions—to prioritize higher education and careers over family formation. Could this possibly be creating a culture that prioritizes self over family?
Robert Verbruggen of the Institute For Family Studies said, “Surveys, for example, show that more Americans see job satisfaction and close friends as very important to a fulfilling life than see marriage or kids that way.”
4. Unintended/Mistake Pregnancy Narrative
The framing of pregnancies as “unintended” or “mistakes” has been part of public health discourse since at least the 1990s (Santelli, 2003; Institute of Medicine, 1995, National Library of Medicine 2015). This language reflects a belief that many pregnancies are not actively chosen, but accidental or mistimed, and that birth control is necessary to avoid them. The persistence of this language can subtly shift expectations and attitudes, making childbirth less a choice and more a risk—thereby depressing desired fertility.
Systemic problems often arise when certain ideologies, concepts, or cultural norms (such as the idea that pregnancies are mistakes and therefore negative) become deeply embedded in a society. These deeply held beliefs can shape institutions and social structures in ways that reinforce inequality or slow meaningful progress. Because these patterns or ideas are woven into the fabric of everyday life, they are frequently accepted as normal or even beneficial—making them especially difficult to identify and change within the dominant cultural or ideological framework.
5. Digital Isolation & Relationship Delay
Research (Alice Evans, IFS) attributes part of the fertility decline to the rise in “singledom” fueled by digital entertainment and social isolation. Many young people are delaying relationships and intimacy—further postponing marriage and children.
6. Generational Comfort & Work Ethic
A prevailing cultural critique holds that younger generations have grown in a comfort-based culture—less inclined toward sacrifice or long-term planning—making marriage and parenthood seem burdensome rather than meaningful.
Jean Twenge put it this way, “Along with the direct impacts of technology, individualism and a slower life trajectory are the key trends that define the generations of the 20th and 21st centuries…One trend is toward a slower life trajectory, by which she means starting later to join the work force and form a household. With greater college attendance and fewer early marriages, young people are spending more time in what seems to older generations like adolescence. Moreover, it seems like an adolescence that is less adventurous and more sheltered.”
This lengthened adolescence as well as increased fertility technology is causing more millennials to have babies in their 40s, thereby decreasing the number of children that they can have.
7. Decline of Nurturing Cultural Support
In previous generations, grandparents and neighbors provided regular help and encouragement for young families. Today, older women often live separately, pursue personal interests, or work—reducing intergenerational support. Even though every situation is unique and reasons are not fully clear, pre-school and day-care enrollments are up and the number of children being watch by grandparents is down.
8. Parenting Confidence & Digital Safety Anxiety
Many young adults express fear in managing digital exposure for children—social media harms, screen time, cyberbullying. They admit feeling unprepared or unconfident to safeguard their kids—sometimes delaying childbearing until “equipped.”
Many young adults have also not had good relationships with parents or have had overly emotional or dramatic upbringings, thereby causing them to feel insecure with their abilities to parent children calmly and properly due to their experiences or bad parenting examples.
Faith & Religiosity
- According to Pew Research Center’s 2023–2024 Religion and Fertility report, individuals identifying as Christian had completed fertility around 2.2 children, while religiously unaffiliated averaged 1.8 children.
- Decline of religious affiliation from ~70% Christian in 2007 to ~62% in 2024 correlates with lower fertility overall.
- “Research by Hayford & Morgan (2008), using the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth, found that women who consider religion ‘very important’ in their everyday lives have both higher intended fertility and realized fertility than those who consider religion only ‘somewhat important’ or ‘not important.’”
- Having a clear purpose or mission in life is an effect of having faith that also leads to increased fertility.
Faith, community, and spiritual worldview are powerful predictors of both desire and practice of family formation.
Economic & Policy Drivers
1. Cost of Living: Housing, Childcare & Space Constraints
- Nesting in condos or rental apartments—with limited space—discourages large families. Housing affordability now rivals child care as a principal barrier (Business Insider, 2025).
- The costs of every day items like eggs, milk, gasoline, and clothing have been increasing. When the food budget goes up, other possible expenses, like diapers or baby formula seem impossible to afford to young adults.
- Child care costs have soared: as of 2023, the average national cost was $11,582 per child—approximately 10% of married couple median household income, and 32% for single parents.
- In many states, child care for two children exceeded annual mortgage payments and rent costs by up to 100% or more.
- Even high-income families may spend over $70,000 a year in child care and associated expenses—roughly 18–27% of income.
- The child care financial strain may discourage couples from having more or any children. However, rather than a relief, subsidizing child care can become another normalization of outsourced parenting, not encouraging at-home mothering—something many believe would support higher fertility naturally.
- Also, if society pushes for subsidized child care it could encourage women to work more hours and subsequently want less children, thereby decreasing the fertility rate.
2. Marriage Penalties & Policy Influence
Tax codes (e.g. EITC cliffs) and benefit structures sometimes penalize marriage—creating disincentives for early cohabitation or family formation. Reform could modestly encourage earlier unions and fertility.
3. Global Comparisons
Many developed nations—Japan, South Korea, Italy—record TFRs between 0.7 and 1.4, below replacement level (1.6 on average for U.S.) Religious and cultural differences help explain why the U.S. remains slightly higher.
Historical Contrasts: Fertility During Hard Times
- During the Great Depression, U.S. fertility declined but families continued forming—even amid economic hardship.
- The post-World War II Baby Boom exemplifies that once economic outlooks (the economy took time to rebound) and cultural narratives shifted toward optimism and family-building, fertility surged. The way we see our current situations, our mindset related to the future, really matters. It gives us hope or worry; which both impact fertility rates.
- This suggests that economic hardship alone does not suppress fertility indefinitely—but when combined with cultural messaging that devalues family formation, the effect may be more lasting.
Intersecting Factors Make The Perfect Storm
- At its root, declining marriage—especially among lower-SES groups—is a primary driver of falling fertility.
- Overlayed on that are health trends, mental health messaging, cultural shifts around self and intimacy, economic constraints, religious decline, self-centered messaging, and societal complexity.
- The combined effect: U.S. fertility at ~1.62 births per woman in 2023, well below the replacement level of 2.1 and steadily falling.
What Can We Do?
- Renew narratives that celebrate marriage and children as joyful, sacred, and purposeful.
- Faith communities: model parenting joyfully, train and mentor young adults, prioritize family-generation vision.
- Parents: intentionally teach children that marriage and family life are worthy, wonderful pursuits—not second-class to schooling or careers.
- Policy and cultural norms: encourage flexible work, tax credits, intergenerational support, affordable housing for families.
- Reclaim nurturing as a vocation: affirm at-home motherhood and fatherhood as dignified, life-giving stations—not merely tolerated, but honored.
The Perfect Storm
Children offer hope, meaning, and generational purpose. America once thrived in hardship through family and faith. Today’s perfect storm—rising costs, shifting culture, psychological self-focus, fertility suppression narrative, less religious identity—threatens that legacy.
But hope remains. We can renew marriage as a vocation, family as a calling, and children as blessings. The question isn’t why not now?—it’s why not us? Why not rebuild community and belief so that young couples see children as sources of joy, meaning, and legacy once more?
Some References
Kearney, M. S., Levine, P. B., & Pardue, K. (2022). The Causes and Consequences of Declining U.S. Fertility. Economic Strategy Group. https://www.economicstrategygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Kearney_Levine_081222.pdf
Kearney, M. S., & Wilson, R. (2017). Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom (NBER Working Paper No. 23408). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23408/w23408.pdf
City Journal. (2023). Interview with Melissa Kearney on marriage and birthrates. https://www.city-journal.org/article/marriage-birth-rates-fertility
Business Insider. (2025, July). America’s unhinged real estate market is driving down the birth rate. https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-baby-boom-housing-boom-home-price-affordability-parenting-2025‑7
Mizunuma, N., et al. (2024). Mental health risks in pregnancy and early parenthood among unintended and fertility-treated groups. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth. https://bmcpregnancychildbirth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12884-024-07082-x
Mizunuma, N., et al. (2024). Mental health risks … unintended pregnancy. BMC Pregnancy & Childbirth.
Santelli, J. S., et al. (2003). The Measurement and Meaning of Unintended Pregnancy. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health. https://www.guttmacher.org/journals/psrh/2003/03/measurement-and-meaning-unintended-pregnancy
Pew Research Center. (2025, February). Religion, fertility, and child-rearing in the U.S. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/religion-fertility-and-child-rearing/
U.S. Census Bureau. (2024, January 9). Rising child care costs challenge families. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/01/rising-child-care-cost.html
